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There are recent reports of apparently drastic declines in amphibian populations and of extinctions of a number of the world’s endangered amphibian species. These declines, if real, may be signs of a general trend toward extinction, and many environmentalists have claimed that immediate environmental action is necessary to remedy this “amphibian crisis,” which, in their view, is an indicator of general and catastrophic environmental degradation due to human activity.

To evaluate these claims, it is useful to make a preliminary distinction that is far too often ignored. A declining population should not be confused with an endangered one. An endangered population is always rare, almost always small, and, by definition, under constant threat of extinction even without a proximate cause in human activities. Its disappearance, however unfortunate, should come as no great surprise. Moreover, chance events—which may indicate nothing about the direction of trends in population size—may lead to its extinction. The probability of extinction due to such random factors depends on the population size and is independent of the prevailing direction of change in that size.

For biologists, population declines are potentially more worrisome than extinctions. Persistent declines, especially in large populations, indicate a changed ecological context. Even here, distinctions must again be made among declines that are only apparent (in the sense that they are part of habitual cycles or of normal fluctuations), declines that take a population to some lower but still acceptable level, and those that threaten extinction (e.g., by taking the number of individuals below the minimum viable population). Anecdotal reports of population decreases cannot distinguish among these possibilities, and some amphibian populations have shown strong fluctuations in the past.

It is indisputably true that there is simply not enough long-term scientific data on amphibian populations to enable researchers to identify real declines in amphibian populations. Many fairly common amphibian species declared all but extinct after severe declines in the 1950s and 1960s have subsequently recovered, and so might the apparently declining populations that have generated the current appearance of an amphibian crisis. Unfortunately, longterm data will not soon be forthcoming, and postponing environmental action while we wait for it may doom species and whole ecosystems to extinction.


It can be inferred from the passage that the author believes which of the following to be true of the amphibian extinctions that have recently been reported?

正确答案: E

参考解析

提交我的解析
    文章大意逻辑
    文章开篇指出近期有报告称两栖动物数量急剧下降以及一些濒危物种灭绝,许多环保主义者认为这是“两栖动物危机”,是人类活动导致环境退化的标志,需要立即采取环境行动。接着作者提出要评估这些说法,需区分数量下降和濒危的概念,濒危物种即便没有人类活动的直接原因也常面临灭绝威胁。然后说明对于生物学家来说,数量下降比灭绝更令人担忧,且数量下降有多种情况,而轶事报道无法区分这些可能性,同时目前缺乏足够长期科学数据。 文章类型及逻辑简图
    文章类型:观点论证型 逻辑简图 Reports of amphibian population declines and extinctions.(近期两栖动物数量下降和灭绝的报告) Environmentalists' claim: "amphibian crisis" due to human caused environmental degradation, need for immediate action.(环保主义者观点:人类导致的环境退化引发“两栖动物危机”,需立即行动) Need to make distinctions: declining population vs. endangered population.(需区分:数量下降和濒危物种) For biologists, population declines are more worrisome, different types of declines.(对生物学家而言,数量下降更令人担忧,存在不同类型的下降) Lack of long term scientific data.(缺乏长期科学数据) 做题方法及问题类型
    这是一道推断题,通过定位文章中作者对于近期两栖动物灭绝报告相关观点的表述来进行推断。 选项分析
    A选项:它们主要是由人类活动导致的环境退化造成的。文章中作者对环保主义者这种观点持怀疑态度,认为缺乏足够数据支撑,所以该选项错误。 B选项:如果及时采取行动保护两栖动物物种的栖息地,它们可能本可以避免。文章未提及栖息地保护与避免灭绝的关系,该选项属于无中生有。 C选项:它们不应让人感到惊讶,因为两栖动物数量普遍已经下降了很多年。文章没有提到数量下降多年与这次灭绝是否让人惊讶的关联,该选项错误。 D选项:它们可能是由偶然事件的组合造成的。文章只是提到偶然事件可能导致灭绝,但未说近期的灭绝就是由偶然事件组合造成,该选项过度推断。 E选项:它们并不清楚地构成一般环境退化的证据。作者强调缺乏长期科学数据,对环保主义者认为两栖动物灭绝是环境退化标志的观点存疑,该选项符合作者观点。 综上,答案是E。

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